The Pathologic Response Evaluation and Detection in Circulating Tumor-DNA Study: Ultrasensitive Circulating Tumor-DNA Assessment of Breast Cancer Minimal Residual Disease

Author(s): Natasha B. Hunter, MD1; Heather A. Parsons, MD1,2; Leslie Cope, PhD3; Jenna V. Canzoniero, MD, MS3; Fabio C.P. Navarro, PhD4; Sherif El-Refai, PharmD, PhD4; Jesus D. Anampa, MD, MS5; Joseph A. Sparano, MD5; Mothaffar Rimawi, MD6; Anna Maria Storniolo, MD7; Candace Mainor, MD8; Rita Nanda, MD9; Angela DeMichele, MD, MSCE10; Gaorav P. Gupta, MD, PhD11; Erica J. Stringer-Reasor, MD12; Filipa Lynce, MD2,8; Erin F. Cobain, MD13; Shannon Puhalla, MD14; Rachel Jankowitz, MD10,14; Brent Rexer, MD, PhD15; Ingrid Mayer, MD, , MSCI15; E. Shelley Hwang, MD, MPH, MBA16; Kimberly Blackwell, MD16; Walid El Ayass, MD17; Young Lee, MD18; Carol Tweed, MD18; Mary Wilkinson, MD3,19; Angela Pennisi, MD19; Bonnie Sun, MD3; Pamela Wright, MD3; Julie R. Gralow, MD1; Richard Chen, MD4; Sean M. Boyle, PhD4; Vered Stearns, MD3; Antonio C. Wolff, MD3; Ben Ho Park, MD, PhD15;
Source: DOI: 10.1200/JCO-25-02934

Dr. Anjan Patel's Thoughts

Primary objective not met, ctDNA clearance post- neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) cannot reliably predict pathologic complete response (pCR) and shouldn't be used to defer surgery. But the prognostic data are striking: post-NAT ctDNA positivity independently predicted recurrence in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (HR 8.9), and the postsurgical landmark analysis is essentially binary, 100% of ctDNA-positive patients recurred while 94% of ctDNA-negative patients were disease-free at 5 years (HR 128). Not practice-changing yet pending prospective utility trials, but this strongly validates ultrasensitive ctDNA as a prognostic tool and a smart enrollment biomarker for future escalation/de-escalation trials.

PURPOSE

Patients with stage II/III human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)???positive or triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) frequently receive neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). Although pathologic complete response (pCR) correlates with improved outcomes, many non-pCR patients have long-term survival. Circulating tumor-DNA (ctDNA) minimal residual disease (MRD) assessment may provide additional or superior risk stratification.

METHODS

Pathologic Response Evaluation and Detection in Circulating Tumor-DNA is a prospective, multicenter study evaluating ctDNA as a biomarker of treatment response using a tumor-informed, ultrasensitive (

RESULTS

Of 227 enrolled patients, 220 were evaluable for pCR (48% HER2-positive; 52% TNBC) and 91 patients (41%) had pCR. The primary objective was not met. Although all patients with pCR were ctDNA-negative after NAT, 40% of non-pCR patients were also ctDNA-negative (NPV, 60% [95% CI, 0.50 to 0.69]). However, the prespecified secondary objective was met. Detectable ctDNA after NAT was prognostic for recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 8.9 [95% CI, 2.4 to 33]; P = .001), independent of pCR. Additionally, detectable ctDNA after surgery identified patients extremely high recurrence risk (HR, 128 [95% CI, 15 to 1,083]; P < .001), while ctDNA-negative patients after surgery had 94% 5-year IDFS.

CONCLUSION

In HER2-positive breast cancer and TNBC, ctDNA after NAT does not discriminate pCR from non-pCR. However, ctDNA provides markedly superior prognostic stratification, identifying patients with exceptional outcomes and those extreme risk. These findings support ctDNA-guided therapeutic de-escalation and escalation strategies.

Author Affiliations

1Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; 2Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; 3Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; 4Personalis, Fremont, CA; 5Montefiore Einstein Comprehensive Cancer Center, Bronx, NY; 6Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX; 7Indiana University Melvin and Bren Simon Comprehensive Cancer Center, Indianapolis, IN; 8Medstar Georgetown University-Hospital-Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Washington, DC; 9University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; 10University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA; 11University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; 12University of Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL; 13Rogel Cancer Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; 14University of Pittsburgh, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, PA; 15Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN; 16Duke University and Duke Cancer Institute, Durham, NC; 17Tidal Health, Peninsula Regional Medical Center, Salisbury, MD; 18Anne Arundel Medical Center, Annapolis, MD; 19Inova Schar Cancer, Fairfax, VA

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